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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It often serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest upset.

Yet the latest field is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. In an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still