A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
