Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Decline Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Figures

The typical number of everyday homicides per month in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new administrative data. Nevertheless, security analysts have advised that murder numbers might not point to enhanced countrywide stability.

Notable Drop in Daily Figures

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 murders a day in the month of November versus roughly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September of last year. This data was shared by the chief of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we have seen during these months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that the previous month the least number of murders were documented for any November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Violent drug cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s highly militarised campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than the US. From that point, murders have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an seemingly steeper reduction in killings this year.

At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader said: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central components of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Increased coordination between government agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Concerns

However, public safety researchers warned that focusing solely on murder data to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is notably true considering the rise in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be excellent news if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and think: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

As reported by the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the same timeframe last year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer valid for gauging the context of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly means of daily homicides was similarly concerning because it could hide days when there were notably elevated numbers of killings.

“Relying on the per-day average renders high peaks of violence less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the government can cite the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and this past November for major offenses, according to official data. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

Yet despite these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with extreme violence, with several regions in the throes of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a notable assassination of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the last 12 months.

A short time later, thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to voice their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to construct a narrative of improvement. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s highly questionable,” the analyst concluded.